Career Progression Tools are invaluable resources for individuals seeking to advance their careers, especially those without a four-year college degree. These tools leverage comprehensive labor market data to illuminate potential career pathways and opportunities. This article delves into the methodology and data underpinning these tools, providing a clearer understanding of how they can be used to navigate career transitions.
Deciphering Occupation Transitions Through Data Analysis
Career progression tools are built upon the analysis of historical occupation transitions. By examining data from millions of individuals, these tools identify common movements between different jobs. A significant sample size, in this case, transitions made by more than 50 individuals, ensures the robustness and reliability of the identified career paths. This data-driven approach moves beyond anecdotal evidence to provide concrete insights into how people actually progress in their careers.
Defining Key Occupation Categories: Recent, Next-Step, and Target
To categorize career progression, these tools often utilize income thresholds and occupational characteristics to define different stages.
Recent Occupations are categorized as low-wage (below approximately $38,000 annually) and mid-wage ($38,000–$42,000 annually). These categories represent the starting points from which individuals may seek to advance. The focus is on occupations that have demonstrated potential for upward mobility, indicated by the existence of “next” or “target” occupations.
Next-Step Occupations represent immediate career advancements. These are mid-to-high income occupations (above $42,000 annually) that historically have a significant portion of workers (at least 25%) without a bachelor’s degree. Furthermore, these occupations show a strong trend of attracting individuals from “recent occupations” (over 33% of transitions originate from these) and a balanced outflow to further “target occupations” (less than or equal to 33% transition to targets). Importantly, these next-step roles exclude occupations requiring graduate-level education, as defined by O*NET job zone 5.
Target Occupations represent more ambitious, longer-term career goals. Similar to next-step occupations, these are also mid-to-high income roles (above $42,000 annually). They are further characterized by a low risk of long-term automation or offshoring, ensuring career stability. Target occupations also maintain a history of employing individuals without bachelor’s degrees (more than 10%) and are not classified within O*NET job zone 5.
Data Sources Powering Career Progression Insights
The accuracy and utility of career progression tools are heavily reliant on robust data sources. Several key sources contribute to the comprehensive insights these tools offer:
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EMSI (Economic Modeling Specialists International): Provides historical occupation transition data, national median salary information, salary ranges, unemployment figures for individuals without a bachelor’s degree, and occupation-specific skills. This data is crucial for understanding career pathways and associated compensation.
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Burning Glass Technologies: Offers insights derived from job postings, spanning from 2015 to 2019. This data encompasses occupational fit for individuals with criminal records, certification requirements, flexible hour availability, and opportunities for English-language learners. Job posting analysis provides a real-time view of employer demands and job market trends.
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McKinsey Global Institute: Contributes data on demand outlooks (both short-term and medium-term), risk assessments for automation and offshoring, and occupational groupings. This forward-looking data is essential for assessing the long-term viability and security of different career paths.
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U.S. Department of Labor (O*NET & Census Bureau CPS): Provides detailed occupation descriptions, skill requirements, and related job titles. This foundational data is vital for understanding the specific tasks, knowledge, and abilities associated with each occupation.
Important Considerations and Disclaimer
It’s crucial to recognize that career progression tools offer insights based on historical data, which is not a guarantee of future outcomes. While these tools highlight past trends, future hiring demand and individual career trajectories can vary. It is also important to acknowledge that transitioning to a new occupation may require additional training and may not be suitable for every individual. Regional labor market differences can also influence the availability and feasibility of certain career paths.
Therefore, career progression tools are best utilized as informational resources to be interpreted with the guidance of a career coach or navigator. They serve as a powerful starting point for exploring career options and understanding potential pathways for advancement, but should not be considered definitive predictions of individual career success.
By understanding the data and methodology behind career progression tools, individuals can gain a more informed perspective on their career options and make strategic decisions towards achieving their professional goals.
